How Derby County can clinch League One promotion this weekend against Carlisle United

Derby County go into the final day of the season on the brink of promotion to the Championship.

After two seasons in League One, they have a chance to return to the second tier and completely move out of their recent ugly part of the club’s history.

Paul Warne said before the season that he was aiming to average two points per game; with a win on Saturday, the Rams would finish with an exact two point average on 92 in 46 games.

Derby go into the final day as big promotion favourites due to the fact that promotion is in their hands and they face a last-placed and already relegated Carlisle United side.

The other game to watch will be Bolton Wanderers vs Peterborough United as Bolton are now the only side that can take the promotion spot off the Rams.

Derby County win

If Derby were to win on Saturday, then their nearest rivals Bolton Wanderers wouldn’t be able to do anything to catch up.

It would provide Rams fans with the perfect last day at Pride Park with a win and confirmed promotion to the Championship. A dream scenario which would spark a day of celebration.

Derby County draw

If Derby and Carlisle draw on Saturday, they would take a four point lead over Bolton, meaning yet again that the Trotters wouldn’t be able to catch up even with a win.

Recent wins for Derby have given them the three point buffer which makes the route to promotion much harder for Bolton.

Derby County lose

This is where it gets interesting.

If Derby were to lose to Carlisle on Saturday, Bolton would have a chance at overtaking them. The Trotters would have to beat Peterborough meaning that the two teams would both finish on 89 points.

In this situation, promotion would go to the team with the better goal difference, of which Derby currently have a four goal lead.

For example, if Derby were to lose 1-0, then Bolton would have to win by three to match the Rams’ goal difference. In this scenario, Bolton would earn promotion as it would go to the number of goals scored.

So, Bolton need to win, need Derby to lose and by enough so that the goal differences would at least match.

If Derby do lose on Saturday, it could get very complicated and no doubt tense.